# Failed Prophecies Are Fatal *Exported from [Holy-Writings.com](https://www.holy-writings.com/) on 2026-06-19 — 1 clipping.* --- > Source: Bahá'í Library Online (bahai-library.com), curated by Jonah Winters. Used by permission of the curator. Original citation: Thomas Kelly, Failed Prophecies Are Fatal, bahai-library.com. > ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── > > International Journal for the Study of New Religions 14.1 (2023) 48–71 > ISSN 2041-9511 (print) ISSN 2041-952X (online) > https://www.doi.org/10.1558/ijsnr.33085 > > Failed Prophecies Are Fatal > > Thomas Kelly > > Horizon Institute for Public Service, Washington, DC, USA > > tmichaelkelly@gmail.com > > Many scholars of new religious movements claim that religious belief > and religious groups generally survive failed apocalyptic or millennial > prophecies. This claim originates with the original cognitive dissonance > study, When Prophecy Fails, and has been reiterated by recent surveys of > the field. In this article, I argue that this is false. I argue that the litera- > ture on religious groups which experience failed prophesy suffers from > survivorship bias. I then demonstrate that even setting that aside, the > extant case studies of failed prophecies show that the most common out- > come for a religious group following a failed prophecy is group demise. I > also argue that groups that root their prophecies in a broadly accepted > source of authority, such as biblical interpretation, fare better after pro- > phetic failure than groups that base their prophecies on novel sources > of authority such as personal revelation or a leader who claims divinity > or psychic powers. > > Introduction > Ever since scholars began studying how religious groups responded to > failed prophecies, they have emphasized how religious believers ignore > or rationalize the failure of their prophecies while maintaining their > commitment to their religious group. This claim goes back to Festinger > et al. (1956), who in their landmark book When Prophecy Fails claimed that > a UFO cult predicted an apocalyptic flood and expected that members > of the cult would be rescued by extraterrestrials. Festinger et al. (1956) > claimed that the group responded to the failure of the deluge or the > arrival of aliens by maintaining their faith and trying even harder to > > Keywords: new religious movements, cognitive dissonance, prophecies, apocalypses, > When Prophecy Fails, Baha’is under the Provision of the Covenant, Millerites, > Unarians > Received: 26 February 2025 Accepted after revision: 27 May 2025 > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025, Office 415, The Workstation, 15 Paternoster Row, Sheffield, S1 2BX > Thomas Kelly 49 > proselytize their beliefs. Festinger would go on to create the theory of > cognitive dissonance (1957) and use the case of the UFO cult to substanti- > ate his new theory. > Some of the specific claims of Festinger et al. (1956) have held up poorly. > First, the authors substantially misrepresented the behavior of the UFO > cult both before and after the prophecy failed (Kelly 2023), and while > Festinger et al. (1956) presented the group as an example of faith that > endured failed prophecy, the group itself disbanded immediately after > the failed prophecy (Dawson 2011; Barkun 2015; Kelly 2023). Second, > attempts to replicate similar studies failed to find examples of groups > which increased efforts to proselytize after their prophecies failed > (Hardyck and Braden 1962; Balch et al. 1983; Singelenberg 1989; Zygmunt > 1970). Consequently, scholars have moved away from the specific claim > that proselytization generally follows failed prophecy (Stone 2000) but > they have continued to maintain that both religious belief and religious > groups generally ignore the unequivocal failure of their prophecies and > maintain their beliefs even as outside observers would argue that their > religious beliefs had been falsified. Stone (2011, 44) summarized this con- > ventional wisdom, “despite obvious and unequivocal disconfirmation, > believers tend to respond to failed prophecy in ways that reaffirm their > faith.” > While Festinger et al. (1956) contributed a singular case study to the > scholarship of new religions, they also examined various historical reli- > gious movements that they argued may have thrived despite experienc- > ing failure of religion. Some of the religious movements they discussed > in this context included the Sabbateans, the Millerites, and early Chris- > tians. Much of the scholarship that followed Festinger et al. (1956) focused > on new case studies of new religious movements or evaluations of new > religious movements as whole, rather than examining long-established > religions such as Christianity. > Many Christians view Christianity as a case of a successful prophecy, > viewing Jesus of Nazareth as fulfilling various passages from the Hebrew > Bible, which they take to be predictions of his ministry, crucifixion, and > redemptive sacrifice, with various other passages of the Hebrew Bible > referring to his eventual future return. Some critics of Christianity > and various religious scholars have viewed Jesus of Nazareth as a failed > religious prophet and the world’s largest religion, Christianity, as an > example of a religion successfully enduring a failed prophecy. If early > Christianity is understood as a movement enduring a failed prophecy, > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > 50 Failed Prophecies Are Fatal > and Festinger and others are correct about religious belief surviving > failure of prophecy, then the world’s largest religion is an exemplar of > this tendency. And many scholars claim that the study of new religious > movements shows that the failure of prophecy only reaffirms religious > belief and does not undermine religious movements. > Yet, when carefully examined, the scholarship on new religious move- > ments does not substantiate the claim that these movements tend to sur- > vive failed prophecy. Most of the religious groups that have been studied > die within ten years of the failed prophecy. The main contribution of this > article is to show that the conventional wisdom on the consequences of > prophetic failure is wrong: when a prophecy fails, the failure of the reli- > gious movement usually follows shortly thereafter. Assessing whether > this is causal is important, challenging, and outside the scope of the arti- > cle. What this article establishes is that new religious belief and religious > groups do not generally survive the failure of their religious prophecies, > and that claims that such religious movements tend to survive failed > prophecies are not true. Theories about group behavior and religious > belief or about cognitive dissonance that rely on the claim that religious > belief and groups survive failed prophecy should be re-evaluated in light > of this evidence. If Christianity is understood as a movement that expe- > rienced a failed prophecy at its very origins, then the world’s largest > religion is a historic anomaly by surviving failed prophecy, rather than > an exemplar. > I begin by explaining how the literature on failed prophecy suffers > from a survivorship bias problem. I then show how some scholars have > claimed to find examples of new religious movements experiencing > failed prophecies—even when no failed prophecy existed. Next, I show > that some scholars have exaggerated the survival rate of groups which > experience failed prophecy. For instance, Melton (1985) claimed to pro- > vide five examples of groups that survived failed prophecies, but two of > these groups disbanded following the failed prophecy, one lost most of its > members, one group’s true identity is unknown, and its survival cannot > be known, and the fifth may not have experienced a failed prophecy. > I then address two potential sources of resilience for groups experienc- > ing failed prophecy. The first is age. It seems plausible that old groups > might survive failed prophecies more easily. Older religious groups have > proven that they have staying power and such groups might have more > members whose careers, social networks, and worldviews are heavily > enmeshed in their religious group. Exit costs in older groups might be > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > Thomas Kelly 51 > higher, causing members to remain even after their group experiences > a failed prophecy. I find no evidence that old groups fare better when > facing failed prophecies due to the paucity of examples of older religious > groups predicting an imminent apocalypse. > The second protective factor considered is the source of the prophecy. > Failed prophecy might be especially hard to survive when the source > of the prophetic knowledge does not have default legitimacy or a his- > tory of being viewed as authentic by both the group members and by > the broader society from which the group can draw new recruits. For > instance, if a religious leader claims to have received a vision or novel > revelation or prophecy delivered by an angel or an extraterrestrial, if > that revelation or prophecy fails, that casts doubt on the abilities of > the prophet (or the trustworthiness of the supernatural messenger). If > the movement and its theology was based upon that prophet’s personal > authority, it calls the whole movement into question. In contrast, if a > new sect splits from an existing religion based off a new interpretation > of religious scripture or tradition, even if a prophecy based off that new > interpretation fails, the sect might continue to trust in their scripture > and treat the failed prophecy as a failure of interpretation rather than a > failure of their scripture itself. > For instance, within Anglo-Protestant societies, biblical interpretation > is not a novel source of information about the second coming of Christ > but is an accepted, authoritative source. Within Anglo-Protestant socie- > ties, prophecies based on personal communication with an angel would > be a novel source. A failed prophecy based on scriptural interpretation > would likely pose little threat to the enduring status of the Christian > Bible. Group members might be willing to continue to accept claims > based upon the Bible but acknowledge that the group simply made an > error in interpretation. Members still trusting the Bible might even be > willing to accept new prophecies issued based on the authority of the > Bible. However, a failed prophecy based on an angelic visitor might cast > into doubt the ability of the prophet to communicate with angels, the > existence of the alleged angel, or the trustworthiness of the angel, and > members might cease to regard claims of angelic communication as a > trustworthy guide to the future. > What is an accepted source versus a novel source of the prophecy is > contextual. Within the early Latter-Day Saints movement, the claim to > be a living prophet of Jesus Christ might be an accepted source of knowl- > edge whereas it would not be within most Protestant circles. I review > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > 52 Failed Prophecies Are Fatal > the cases of failed prophecy in the literature and find some evidence > that groups that based their prophecy on accepted sources of knowledge, > especially biblical interpretation, fare better. > Survivorship bias > Many studies of failed prophecies are retrospective. Since religious > groups that die after failed prophecies are less likely to make a mark on > history, to produce documentation of their beliefs and behavior, or to > be noticed by researchers when compared to groups that have survived > failed prophecies, retrospective studies of failed prophecy will exag- > gerate how many groups experience failed prophecy and survive. This > means that the literature on failed prophecy has overstated how com- > monly religious groups survive failed prophecy. The extent of this bias > is unknown; it may have caused the literature to significantly overstate > the survival rates of groups experiencing failed prophecy. > Contestable claims of failed prophecy > To study failed prophecies, scholars must find examples of failed prophe- > cies. The pool of case studies that scholars of new religious movements > and prophecies often reference is small, and many of the case studies > suffer from the problem that, in some of the cases, it is not clear that the > studied religious groups actually experienced a failure of prophecy. I > review four oft-cited case studies where the existence of a failed proph- > ecy can be contested for a variety of reasons. In the first case, a group > neither produced nor promoted a prophecy but some members came > to believe a prediction they heard on a paranormal radio show. In the > second case, the prophecy was carefully worded and qualified, making > it hard to conclusively say it failed. In the third case, the prophecy con- > cerning a medical miracle was partially fulfilled according to scientific > experts of the time. In the fourth case, the claim that a prophecy failed > depends on accepting a specific theological premise. > The UFO Center > Bader (1999) provided an account of failed prophecy entitled “When > Prophecy Passes Unnoticed.” One explanation for why this proph- > ecy was not noticed is that his account makes it clear that there was > no prophecy, at least not in the sense that corresponds to any normal > use of the term. Bader (1999) tells us of a monthly UFO discussion group > that hosted guest speakers, talked about UFOs and other occult and > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > Thomas Kelly 53 > paranormal topics. After hearing of predicted alien landings in 1996 > from a paranormal radio show, some members of the discussion group > thought that the radio show was correct. Then aliens did not land. Bader > (1999, 125), who observed this group, notes that “the failure neither dis- > appointed members enough to prompt their desertion of the group, led > to increased excitement of any form, nor required any explanation or > apology from the group leader.” He then goes on to argue that members > of the UFO discussion group did not react strongly to the “failed proph- > ecy” because their level of commitment to this group was low, so failed > prophecies should have little effect on morale. Bader’s proposed connec- > tion between a group’s response to failed prophecy and commitment to > the group might be true. However, it is inappropriate to treat this as an > example of a religious group experiencing failed prophecy. > First, Bader’s own description of the UFO Center makes it sound like it > is not a religious group at all. Second, the failed prophecy or prediction > of UFO landings originated outside the group and was not core to the > group’s collective beliefs or purposes. Unlike other groups whose lead- > ers issued predictions and whose members prepared for the fulfillment > of prophecy only to see the prophecy fail, members of this group only > learned that some radio guests that they had found convincing were > wrong. The fate of the UFO discussion group does not provide relevant > data about actual religious groups’ responses to failed prophecies. > The Morrisites > Another problem with case studies on failed prophecies is that some > scholars will read a conditional, equivocal prophecy and claim that it > is a highly specific prophecy that can easily be labeled as failed once its > predictions fail to come true. Halford et al. (1981) provide a history of a > splinter sect of the Latter-Day Saints or “Mormon” movement known > as the Morrisites after their founder, Joseph Morris, who proclaimed > himself a living prophet. His followers formed their own community, > before a violent conflict with outsiders, “the Morrisite War,” resulted in > the death of their prophet and several others. Halford et al. (1981) treat > this group as providing a straightforward example of a group persist- > ing despite failed prophecy. While this overall interpretation is correct, > the authors demonstrate how easy it is for scholars to think that they > have discovered an example of a clearly failed prophecy when they did > no such thing. Compare the description of an 1861 prophecy given by > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > 54 Failed Prophecies Are Fatal > Table 1: Comparison of prophecy interpretation and original prophecy. > > Halford, Anderson, > and Clark’s account Actual prophecy > On December 31, the BEHOLD, I say unto you, my son, I see the position in which > prophecy was spe- you are placed with my people. They cannot get ready to > cific and unqualified: meet me this day by the time that I wanted to come. I felt > “Let my people settle satisfied last evening that my people could not get every- > up their accounts thing ready to meet me this morning, and I shall not come > today and prepare to-day. Let all my people settle up their accounts to-day, and > themselves for a visit prepare themselves for a visit from me to-morrow morning; > from me tomorrow.” and if they will do this, I will surely come to-morrow morn- > (p. 6) ing. I am satisfied that my people have done all that they > possibly could to prepare themselves to meet me to-day ; but > they have not been able to make all things ready, and, on > that account, I cannot come this day. I want to come as soon > as my people will prepare themselves to meet me. They may > do this to-morrow, morning without hurrying themselves. > My servants must show unto my people the necessity of > fully preparing themselves to-day to meet me to-morrow > ; for, as I live, I shall come to-morrow if my people are pre- > pared to meet me. Therefore, if my people wish to see me > on that day, they can, if they will prepare themselves to do > so. If they do not see me on that day, it will be entirely their > own fault. If they do not prepare themselves, they will have > to see me whether they are ready or not. I shall not wait for > them more than another day or two. My people now know > my mind ; therefore, if they wish to see me, let them prepare > themselves by to-morrow. I am the Lord of Hosts. Even so. > Amen and Amen. (Morris 1886, 341–342) > > Halford et al. (1981) in their article to the full context of the Morrisite > prophecy in Table 1. > While the prophecy of 31 December 1861 definitely urged the Morrisites > to view the Second Coming as imminent, its immediate fulfillment of the > return of Jesus hinged on the preparations of the Morrisites. This was > not the first time their prophet had taught them that prophecies were > hard to understand and rarely unequivocal. In February of that year, > their prophet had delivered a message, which he said came from Jesus > Christ. In this message, whose ominous title begins with “THE INABILITY > OF MAN TO UNDERSTAND THE WAYS OF THE LORD,” Morris, speaking > as Jesus warned his followers that “I am not trifling either with them > or with this people. I am placed in a position where I have to work in a > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > Thomas Kelly 55 > manner that all do not understand; and, not understanding, they have > thought that I have not fulfilled my promises; but I have. When I speak > I do it in mine own way, and all cannot understand me; but to you it is > given to understand my ways, to others it is not” (Morris 1886, 60–61). > Morris, speaking as Jesus, would reiterate this message just months > later in August, that his followers “should know that I speak in half sen- > tences. I speak plain enough for those to understand who are enlight- > ened by my spirit. I can make all those understand me whom I wish to. > I do not want all people to understand” (Morris 1886, 125). Morris also > reprimanded his followers for misinterpreting other prophecies, such as > a directive to not plant crops, which he said they took too far. The gen- > eral framing that Morris provided of his own prophecies makes it hard > to say that any given prophecy is clearly falsified. The example provided > by Halford et al. (1981) for 31 December was clearly not an unqualified > prediction—yet they claimed it was. Some scholars in this area find clear > examples of failed prophecies even when their selected examples are far > from clear. > That said, Halford et al. (1981) still provide a useful history and inter- > pretation of the Morrisite movement. Even if some of their prophetic > interpretations were overstated, it is fair to treat the Morrisites as a sect > that experienced failed prophecy and survived. Morris (1886) makes it > clear that they should have prepared for the second coming of Christ to > arrive in 1861. Morris also prophesied that he would not be killed by his > enemies (Morris 1886). He would later be killed by his enemies. Despite > the non-arrival of the Second Coming and the unforeseen killing of their > leader, the Morrisites would persist for decades afterwards. While there > was substantial attrition among the group, those who held to their faith > claimed that Joseph Morris had fulfilled his role by putting on an elabo- > rate pageant that symbolically foreshadowed the Second Coming (Ander- > son 1981). > Halford et al. (1981) point to some features of the Morrisites that might > account for their survival as a group. Group members surrendered their > individual property, making it hard to leave the group. Apostates were > threatened with death. Many Morrisites were recent European immi- > grants with no social ties outside the group. Finally, almost all other > people living in the region were mainstream Mormons who the Mor- > risites believed would shun them even if they left the Morrisites, making > apostasy economically challenging and physically perilous. > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > 56 Failed Prophecies Are Fatal > Joanna Southcott > Joanna Southcott, a British woman who claimed to be a prophet of God > and the bride of Christ, started gathering what would eventually become > thousands of followers in 1801 (Balleine 1956). She and her followers are > used as an example of a group surviving and maintaining belief in a > failed prophecy by Melton (1985) in his influential article that argued > that religious groups easily survived failed prophecies. > The prophecy in Southcott’s case was that when she was 64 years old, > she would become pregnant with a boy named Shiloh, who when born > would prepare the world for the second coming of Christ. Southcott’s > case is interesting because the first part of the prophecy did come true— > at least according to the medical establishment of the time. At the age of > 64, Southcott appeared to become pregnant and her apparent pregnancy > was confirmed by physicians, including some of the country’s most > prominent doctors (Balleine 1956). The pregnancy then ended with no > child appearing. This is generally interpreted by latter observers as evi- > dence that Southcott was experiencing a false or hysterical pregnancy, > but some of her followers became convinced that not only had Southcott > been pregnant but her child had been taken away by God till the time > was right to reveal him to the world. > Is it fair to treat Southcott’s followers as ignoring a clearly failed > prophecy? While no miraculous child has yet returned, it is true that > had Southcott’s followers observed her apparent pregnancy or trusted > the dozens of physicians that examined her, they could reasonably con- > clude that Southcott was pregnant, in accordance with her prophecy, > and given her age, it could be seen as miraculous. Another reason why > we might not think that Southcott’s followers simply ignored a failed > prophecy is an event that happened following her death. After South- > cott died, several competing leaders with their own factions claimed to > be her legitimate successor. As Melton (1985) admits, one of the leaders > vying for influence, John Wroe, claimed that Shiloh would return six > years after his “birth,” but when Shiloh did not return and the prophecy > clearly failed, Wroe lost influence over the movement. The movement > may not have rejected Southcott’s partially fulfilled prophecy, but when > Wroe’s simply failed, he lost influence (Melton 1985). > Lubavitch Hasidim > Another proposed case of belief persisting after a prophecy has failed is > the continued belief among some members of the Lubavitch movement > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > Thomas Kelly 57 > that Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson is the Jewish messiah even > after his death in 1994 (Dein 1997, 2011; Shaffir 2000). > Dein (2011, ix) writes that the “belief in the final resurrection of the > dead is normative in Judaism and is set down as Maimonides’s thirteenth > principle of faith, but there is little precedent for the view that Moshiach > could come from the dead.” In other words, the claim that Schneerson > was or would become the messiah must be false because the religious > doctrine that the messiah must not die is true. To treat the death of > Schneerson as a failed prophecy, we must affirm a contested religious > doctrine. This makes using the case of Schneerson’s death troublesome. > In contrast to the prophesied flood in When Prophecy Fails or claims of the > second coming of Christ or of mass landings by alien spacecraft, which > observers can agree did not happen in a physical sense, it is unclear how > social scientists could determine whether or not the Jewish messiah can > die or appear to die. > Even if most or all contemporary Jewish religious authorities agreed > that Schneerson’s death meant he could not be the messiah, it would > not follow that Schneerson’s followers who viewed him as a messiah > were suffering from cognitive dissonance following his death. It is quite > common for practitioners of any religion not to hold or acknowledge > the religious or moral doctrines formally taught by religious authori- > ties. No matter how incongruous the claim that a dead man could be the > messiah might be according to contemporary Judaism, to convincingly > count Schneerson’s death as a failed prophecy among his followers, it > would first be necessary to show that at least some subset of his followers > thought that Schneerson was the messiah and therefore could not die. > Then it would be possible to treat Schneerson’s death as a case of failed > prophecy for at least that subset of his believers. Assertions that correct > religious doctrine shows Schneerson is not the messiah do not prove that > his followers or others assent or assented to that teaching in practice. > Not only do members of the Lubavitch movement who consider Sch- > neerson the messiah disagree that death preclude a messianic claim, but > literally billions of other humans also agree. Both Muslims and Chris- > tians consider Jesus of Nazareth to be the Jewish messiah (Alma’itah and > Ul Haq 2022), which means most of humanity belongs to religions that > assert that death (or the appearance of death in the case of Islam) is > consistent with an individual being the Jewish messiah. > Schneerson was an incredibly influential religious figure, and no > doubt it is worthwhile for scholars across the world to examine the > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > 58 Failed Prophecies Are Fatal > consequences of his death and legacy. But to treat his death as invali- > dating his potential messianic status requires affirming a specific theo- > logical premise. > Contestable and false claims of group survival > Beyond survivorship bias and the reliance of case studies on groups that, > at least arguably, did not experience failed prophecies, the literature on > failed prophecy (both case studies and surveys of the field) has over- > stated how well groups do following a failed prophecy. Some scholars > have claimed that groups survived that actually died shortly after the > failed prophecy. > What would it mean for a religious group to survive? Since many reli- > gious groups claim to possess unique, urgent, and divinely ordained > missions and knowledge, we might think a religious group must endure > forever to succeed according to its own merits. But that metric is imprac- > tical since we would not be able to label religions that are thousands of > years old or possess billions of followers as successes. For this article, a > group that experiences failed prophecy will count as having survived > failed prophecy if the group, or a direct successor of the group, clearly > continues to exist for ten years after the failed prophecy, without having > recanted their original beliefs, the original prophecy, or the prophet. > Demanding that a group continue to exist for decades after a failed > prophecy sets the standard too high. First, it would force us to ignore > more recent groups that may have appeared to thrive after experiencing > failed prophecy. Second, if a group lasts 40 years after a failed prophecy > and then collapses, the cause of the collapse is likely something other > than the failed prophecy. Of the groups discussed so far in this article, > the Morrisites survived their failed prophecies. > Evaluating the cases of Melton (1985) > Melton (1985, 19–21) argued that “[t]imes of testing tend to strengthen, > not destroy, religious groups” and that “within religious groups, proph- > ecy seldom fails” (p. 20). Melton further argued that religious groups > were able to move on from failed prophecies by successfully spiritual- > izing the prophecy in a process where the “prophesied event is rein- > terpreted in such a way that what was supposed to have been a visible, > verifiable occurrence is seen to have been in reality an invisible, spiritual > occurrence.” Melton reviewed five cases to support this claim of groups > that supposedly experienced failed prophecies and survived. However, I > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > Thomas Kelly 59 > find that of the five cases, two groups died, one group (Joanna’s South- > cott’s followers) arguably did not experience a failed prophecy, one > group immediately lost the majority of its followers, and the fifth group > cannot be identified, and its fate cannot be known. > Melton discussed the group led by Dorothy Martin, made famous by > When Prophecy Fails as an example of a group surviving failed prophecy. > This is inaccurate: the group dissolved within weeks and never reunified > (Dawson 2011; Barkun 2015; Kelly 2023). Melton also claimed the Univer- > sal Link group survived a failed 1967 prophecy of a universal revelation. > The movement died within five years (Living Record 2023a, 2023b). > Melton also cites the Millerites as surviving a famous failed prophecy > of the second coming of Christ. He is correct. Seventh Day Adventists are > descended from this movement; however, the movement experienced > extreme attrition after the failed prophecy. Adventist historian Knight > estimates that the majority of followers abandoned the movement fol- > lowing the failed prophecy (Knight 1999). > The final group cited by Melton is a pseudonymous Pentecostal group > studied by Hardyck and Braden (1962). It is impossible to know the long- > term fate of this group—the only account of the group was published > two years after the failed prophecy, and since the authors, for reasons of > privacy, used pseudonyms for the group and its location, it is impossible > to follow up on this group and ascertain whether it survived beyond the > initial follow-up conducted by Hardyck and Braden. > Melton tried to provide evidence that religious groups easily weather > failed prophecies. Discarding the example whose existence or long-term > fate cannot be known, he provided two examples of movements that died > entirely, one movement that lost most of its members, and one move- > ment that may not have experienced a failed prophecy at all. Of the three > groups that clearly experienced failed prophecy, two of them died. A > better interpretation of Melton’s cases might be that within religious > groups clear failures of prophecy are generally not weathered and that > most groups that experience failed prophecies die. Based on Melton’s > examples, failed prophecies appear fatal. > Evaluating the cases of Dawson (1999) > Dawson (1999) provided a table of thirteen different religious groups that > he claimed experienced false prophecy and listed whether the group > survived the failed prophecy. He claimed twelve of the groups survived > and labeled surviving groups as surviving “for a time” or “quite well” > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > 60 Failed Prophecies Are Fatal > or “barely” or “with difficulties” or “but weakened” but unfortunately > gives no guidance as to what these terms mean. For instance, Dawson > cites Palmer and Finn (1992) to justify labeling the Institute of Applied > Metaphysics as surviving “quite well” even though Palmer and Finn > stated that it had ceased to exist by the time they wrote their article. > In Table 2, I return to Dawson’s cases and record how long the groups > existed before and after the failed prophecy, what we know of changes to > group membership after the failed prophecy, and whether the prophecy > drew upon a novel or accepted source of knowledge. > Dawson claimed twelve of these groups present evidence of survival. > Having set the standard for survival at ten years, I find that three of the > twelve groups clearly survived: The Baha’is under the Provision of the > Covenant, the Millerites, the Jehovah’s Witnesses, and the Unarians. A > fifth, the Rouxists, may also have survived. Six groups perished after > the failure of prophecy. One group cannot be studied due to their iden- > tity having been hidden. One group, the Lubavitch Hasidim, cannot be > labeled as having experienced a failed prophecy without accepting a > specific theological stance. The death of groups is more common than > survival. The Unarians survived disappointment, but whether they sur- > vived failed prophecy is an open question, due to the conditionality of > language and because the prophet disavowed its fulfillment before the > date it was supposed to be fulfilled. > Of the three groups covered by Dawson that clearly survived failed > prophecy, two of the groups were studied retrospectively, therefore suf- > fering from survivorship bias. The study of Baha’is under the Provision > of the Covenant provides an example of a prospective study of prophecy > that shows a group surviving failed prophecy. But even here the group > recognized that the prophecy failed. While the leaders would make more > and more predictions of future disasters (Balch et al. 2000), the members > of the group responded by discontinuing efforts to convert others to > their sect, in some cases leaving the group, and the remaining members > ceased preparing for future disasters predicted by the leadership. The > remaining members’ religious beliefs also shifted away from apocalyptic > prophecies as a central focus and shifted towards a greater emphasis > on the general pre-existing teaching of the Baha’i faith rather than the > unique teachings of their particular sect (Balch et al. 1983). > It is plausible, but not obvious, that the Unarians should be counted > as a group that experienced failed prophecy. Tumminia (2005) describes > Ruth Norman, the group’s leader, as predicting a UFO landing in both > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > Thomas Kelly > > Table 2: Cases from Dawson (1999). > > Name of Dawson Length of pre- Length of post- Accepted or > prophet or (1999) failed prophecy failed prophecy Post-failure decline novel source of > Group alleged messiah sources existence existence or growth knowledge > Dorothy Dorothy Martin Festinger et al. Less than a year Weeks (Dawson Ceased to exist Novel (psychic > Martin’s (1956) (Festinger et al. 2011) within weeks extraterrestrials) > group, 1956) (Dawson 2011; Barkun > “Seekers” 2015; Kelly 2023) > Church of the Pseudonymous Hardyck and Five years Unknown Unknown Accepted > True Word Braden (1962) (Hardyck and (Pentecostal gift of > Braden 1962) prophecy) > Ichigen no Motoki Isamu Sanada (1979) 24 years At least one year Dramatic decline in Novel (personal > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > Miya (Sanada 1979) (Sanada 1979) but first year (Sanada revelation) > probably fewer than 1979) > ten* (Earhart 1983) > Baha’is under Chase and Balch et al. 11 years (Balch 43 years and still Moderate decline of Novel/Accepted > the Provision Jensen (1983) and et al. 1983) exists (BUPC) believers based in (angelic visitation > of the Balch et al. Montana, dramatic and biblical > Covenant (2000) decline elsewhere interpretation) > (Balch et al. 1983) > > (Continued.) > Table 2 (Continued.) > > Name of Dawson Length of pre- Length of post- Accepted or > prophet or (1999) failed prophecy failed prophecy Post-failure decline novel source of > Group alleged messiah sources existence existence or growth knowledge > Millerites William Miller Melton (1985) 13 years (Knight 179 years and still Most Millerites Accepted (biblical > 1993) exists as Adventists abandoned Millerism interpretation) > (Knight 1999) > Universal Link Liebie Pugh Melton (1985) Six years The two groups No institutional Novel (supernatural > (Melton, 1985) promoting the existence after five visitor and > prophecy folded years miraculous angel > within five painting) > years although > publications > promoting the > prophecy were > released up to nine > years afterwards > (Living Record > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > 2023a, 2023b) > Jehovah’s Charles Taze Zygmunt Eight years 145 years and still Departure of key Accepted (biblical > Witnesses Russell (1970), (Rogerson 1969) exists theologian, Nelson interpretation) > Wilson (1978), Barbour and some > Singelenberg demoralization > (1989) but no great effect > (Rogerson 1969; > Macmillan 1957; > Zygmunt 1970) > Failed Prophecies Are Fatal > Name of Dawson Length of pre- Length of post- Accepted or > prophet or (1999) failed prophecy failed prophecy Post-failure decline novel source of > Group alleged messiah sources existence existence or growth knowledge > Rouxists Georges Ernest Van Fossen Seven years 76 years and still Unclear Novel (founder > Thomas Kelly > > Roux (2000) (Van Fossen exists claimed to be God) > (republished) 1982) > Mission de Emmanuel Palmer and 62 years One year (Palmer Group ceased to exist Novel (founder > l’Esprit Saint Robitaille Finn (1992) and Finn, 1992) claimed to be > incarnation of the > Holy Spirit) > Institute Winifred (Win) Palmer and 13 years Leader expelled Group ceased to exist Novel > of Applied Barton Finn (1992) after eight years, (extraterrestrial > Metaphysics movement defunct insect spirit guide > within nine years from Atlantis) > (Palmer and Finn > 1992) > Lubavitch Rabbi Shaffir (1993, Hundreds of 19 years and still Unharmed Accepted > Hasidim Menachem 1994) years (Dein, exists (Rabbinical > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > Mendel Dein (1997) 1997) teaching) > Schneerson > (Continued.) > Table 2 (Continued.) > > Name of Dawson Length of pre- Length of post- Accepted or > prophet or (1999) failed prophecy failed prophecy Post-failure decline novel source of > Group alleged messiah sources existence existence or growth knowledge > Unarians Ruth and Ernest Tumminia 20–21 years 47–48 years and still Prophecy failure Novel/Accepted > Norman (1998) before first exists. in 1975 led to no (Psychic > failed prophecy significant decline extraterrestrials > (Tumminia (Tumminia 2005) are a novel source > 2005) for U.S. society > as a whole but > they promote > their beliefs to > a sympathetic > New Age and UFO > subculture) > Chen Tao Hon-Ming Chen Wright (1998) Five years Four years Leader lost all Novel (mysterious > (Wright and (Wright and Greil followers. teacher with divine > Greil 2011) 2011) (Wright and Greil wisdom and direct > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > 2011) revelation) > *Earhart’s (1983) comprehensive bibliography on English-language sources on Japanese new religious movements shows no publications > by or on the group following Sanada (1979), consistent with the group becoming defunct, but not conclusively showing that the group > went defunct. > Failed Prophecies Are Fatal > Thomas Kelly 65 > 1974 and 1975—neither of which occurred. For the 1974 prediction, Tum- > minia cites the cult publication Tesla Speaks: Countdown!!! to Space Fleet > Landing, and notes that the copy she obtained had a paper slip pasted > over a failed prediction. I obtained a copy of the same volume, which had > been altered in the same manner. However, the language surrounding > this 1974 prophecy is highly conditional; Norman wrote that the fleet > would land only when humanity had overcome its fear of extraterres- > trials (Norman 1974). As Tumminia notes—but does not emphasize—the > 1975 landing prophecy was rescinded days before the anticipated arrival, > when a Unarian psychic revealed that the vision of the UFO fleet was not > a glimpse of the future, but of ancient Egypt (Norman 1975). By the time > 27 September 1975 arrived, the Unarians no longer expected a landing. > While they expressed shock and disappointment at having mistaken an > ancient vision for a modern one, their belief system was not directly > falsified by external events. Even the later prediction of a 2001 UFO land- > ing, as Tumminia notes, was viewed by some Unarians as symbolic or > conditional before the date arrived. > The case of the Rouxist movement provides an ambiguous example > of a group surviving a failed apocalyptic prophecy. Van Fossen (1982) > writes that the Rouxists of France, whose founder first claimed to have > supernatural healing abilities in 1947, originally predicted the arrival of > the millennium in 1954, and that despite its non-arrival, the movement > continued to grow and still survives. > The movement’s founder claimed to be various figures, eventually > landing on a claim to be God. If the group survived a failed prophecy in > 1954, this would be an example of a group with a novel source of knowl- > edge that survived a failed prophecy when relatively young. This may > be the correct interpretation. The challenge is that the claimed 1954 > prophecy is quite obscure. Van Fossen (1982) appears to be the only > English-language source for any 1954 prophecy and he never provides a > translation or the original text of any prophecy referring to 1954. > Another source of ambiguity about the 1954 prophecy comes from > Van Fossen’s interviews of the group members. He writes that when he > interviewed members of the group in 1974 about the failed 1954 prophe- > cies, they “adamantly denied that they indicated any failures, contradic- > tions, or inconsistencies” (1982, 124). Are the members rationalizing a > past failed prophecy or are they correct that there was not a failed 1954 > prophecy? > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > 66 Failed Prophecies Are Fatal > The group does have a history of conditional prophecies. When one > follower of the group claimed that the Virgin Mary told her that they > would convert the Pope to their movement, the leader claimed that her > prophecy had failed because the group had not worked hard enough to > win new disciples. In later decades, 1980 would be set as the deadline for > the arrival of the new age, but the prophecy would be rescinded by the > group’s leaders in 1979, claiming that the followers were not sufficiently > worthy. Other accounts of the history of the Rouxists contain no refer- > ence to a failed millennial prophecy in 1954 (Dericquebourg 2008). > Pro-survival factors? > I suggested that either the age of a group or its reliance on an accepted > source of prophetic knowledge such as holy scripture might protect > groups from the negative effects of failed prophecies. The case studies > on failed prophecies cited above provide no evidence of old groups sur- > viving failed prophecies, as most of the groups that issued these proph- > ecies were quite young and set dates of fulfillment for the imminent > future. New groups often die after a failed prophecy, yet even decades- > old groups such as Mission de l’Esprit Saint can collapse immediately > after prophetic failure. > The source of prophetic knowledge may play a role in shaping how well > a religious group survives failed prophecy. All the groups from Dawson > (1999) that are known to have failed relied on novel sources of knowl- > edge. Of the groups that are known to survive, the two that experienced > substantial growth following failed prophecy (the Jehovah’s Witnesses > and the Millerites) both based their prediction on interpretations of the > Christian Bible, which was accepted as a holy and authoritative scripture > in the societies where the movements began. > If the Unarians are viewed as having experienced failed prophecy, they > survived it, while relying on psychic contact with extraterrestrials as > the source for their prophecies. While this is a novel source of knowl- > edge within the United States as a whole, Tumminia (2005) shows us that > the Unarians recruit from New Age and UFO believers, who are prob- > ably more likely to view psychic contact with extraterrestrials as a more > accepted source of knowledge than the general public does. > The case of the Bahai’s under the Provision of the Covenant warrants > particular discussion, as following the failure of their prophecy, the > leaders explicitly argued that the failure should not cast doubt upon > their movement, as their prophecy was only a failure of scriptural > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > Thomas Kelly 67 > interpretation, not of religious authority. As reported by Balch et al. > (2000), the Bahai’s under the Provision of the Covenant are a small schis- > matic sect of the mainstream Baha’i religion founded by a chiropractor > Leland Jensen, who left the mainstream Baha’i religion in the 1960s after > a succession dispute about the rightful leadership of the faith. Jensen > would move to Montana and be sentenced to prison for sexual offenses. > While in prison, Jensen claimed he received a spiritual revelation naming > him a prophet who was to teach the true Bahai’s faith. Jensen would later > gain a key follower, Neil Chase, who would claim that Jensen’s claims to > be a prophet were vindicated by earlier prophecies from George Wil- > liams, a follower of Joseph Morris, whose prophecies are discussed else- > where in this article. Together, Jensen and Chase would issue various > predictions of nuclear war, comet strikes upon the earth, and various > other catastrophes which did not occur. > Although Jensen taught that he had received his mission through > supernatural revelation, following several failed prophecies, Chase and > Jensen insisted that their prophecies were based upon biblical interpre- > tation, not supernatural revelation. > The admission of human error was rationalized by making a sharp dis- > tinction between a prediction and prophecy. Prophecies came directly > from God, whereas the BUPC’s predictions were based on research and > logic, which are subject to human fallibility. As Chase put it: “We can’t be > false prophets because we don’t claim to be prophets. We simply inter- > pret what is already there in the Bible.” Jensen had always made this dis- > tinction, but it became increasingly important in the 1990s. According to > this reasoning, Jensen and Chase were only human and they could make > mistakes like everyone else. (Balch et al. 2000, 274) > The leaders of the group seemed to recognize that inaccurate interpreta- > tions of the Bible do not cast into doubt the reliability of the Bible, but > inaccurate claims delivered from God or angels might cast into doubt the > spiritual authority of those who talk to supernatural beings. > Spiritualization but not survival > Melton’s (1985) claim that groups respond to failed prophecy by rein- > terpreting their prophecy to entail a spiritual and invisible fulfillment > rather than a concrete and visible fulfillment is supported by the behav- > ior of many of the groups in the literature. Individual believers often > did claim to receive visions that provided guidance for movements after > prophecy failed. These visions could allow for the spiritualization and > > © Equinox Publishing Ltd. 2025 > 68 Failed Prophecies Are Fatal > reinterpretation of failed prophecies, to reveal that that the prophesied > event has been postponed or provide support for succession of leader- > ship in succession disputes. Most groups discussed in this article would > go on to claim further revelation after their prophecies failed. Many of > these groups still died. > Groups where some individuals claimed visions or other forms of rev- > elation and prophecies following failed prophecy include Dorothy Mar- > tin’s group (Festinger et al. 1956), the Morrisites (Anderson 1981), the > Rouxists (Van Fossen 1982), Chen Tao (Wright and Greil 2011), the Unar- > ians (Tumminia 1998), Universal Link (Melton 1985), Southcott’s follow- > ers (Melton 1985), the Millerites (Strayer 2022), Ichigen no Miya (Sanada > 1979), and Baha’is under the Provision of the Covenant (Balch et al. 2000). > The Jehovah’s Witnesses would also go on to make many more apoc- > alyptic prophecies, but these were based on scriptural interpretation > rather than supernatural revelation. The groups in the literature did not > claim to experience shared group visions or to be witnesses of physical, > observable miracles. If cognitive dissonance explains the existence of > some of these visions, it shows limits to what kinds of spiritual experi- > ences disappointed believers have. Even a group that could have believed > that they witnessed a physical miracle, the followers of Joanna South- > cott, did not claim to experience an observable physical miracle after > Shiloh was not born. The absence of miracle claims, other than visions > following failed prophecies, also suggests that disappointed believers do > not generally turn to pious fraud to fabricate miracles. > Conclusion > Past scholars have claimed that religious believers ignored, rationalized, > or spiritualized past failed prophecies, allowing the groups that created > those prophecies to survive. But the case studies carefully assembled > by a variety of scholars since the publication of When Prophecy Fails do > not support that conclusion. In general, failed prophecies look fatal, > and groups that experience them usually fail. 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